Can Gloria Arroyo Afford to Move On? Yes and No.

MLQ3 asks, can Gloria Arroyo afford to move on?

Yes and no. This really depends on her objective. If her objective is to finish her term in 2010, this will be easy. All she has to do is keep still and not rock the boat. Filipinos are forgetful anyway.

However, her political opponents are not. Once her term ends, once her immunity from lawsuit ends, it would be an open season for the opposition. And that she cannot afford. So, no, she cannot afford to move on. She needs a good exit strategy. Let’s explore her options.

Will Chacha come into play? This is a risky move; last year was a tumultuous episode that could have turned awry for her. Whether be it through Con-Ass, or PI, or Con-con, it would be risky. I believe this is in the cards, though it will not be put into play until conditions prove favorable. Her political machine (which apparently broke down at the end of the campaign) must start the groundwork now for Chacha.

The next viable option is to appoint friendlies into government positions that might be involved in lawsuits against her. That would be the Ombudsman (think Ramos-Desierto), the Sandiganbayan, the Court of Appeals, and the Supreme Court. Since she will have control of the Lower House, approval of appointments will be a breeze; if not, she can always avail of the Gonzalez loophole.

Another option is to select a friendly successor. And in this she has a problem. The elections in 2010 will be “star-studded”, with the top winners in this year’s senatorial elections already gearing up for the presidency. She needs someone who the masses will support; she needs someone that businessmen can trust. Her list of choices is short. I suggest she start “packaging” Noli de Castro into a political heavyweight. Noli de Castro needs to establish his gravitas, so that the middle class, the businessmen, will be impressed enough to support him.

Again, can she afford to move on? Yes, if the goal is simply to finish her term. But that would mean criminal cases left and right, and she might end up sharing house with Joseph Estrada. That she cannot afford. So, no, she cannot afford to move on. And knowing her, she would risk everything; she had risked it all anyway, and all she got were mere scratches, so it is better than the other option.

May 23rd, 2007

9 Comments

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  • http://www.manila-bay-watch.blogspot.com Manila Bay Watch

    Hi Arbet,

    Your analysis is excellent. I agree.

    My own take on the matter somehow is similar, i.e., depends on what MLQ3 means by “to move on.”

  • Shaman of Malilipot

    “And knowing her, she would risk everything; she had risked it all anyway, and all she got were mere scratches, so it is better than the other option.”

    You cannot be so sure, Arbet. She may not be as lucky next time.

  • manuelbuencamino

    I think she’s putting all her marbles on an economic turnaround. She thinks all will be forgiven if she succeeds in the economy.
    She’s betting that people will trade their souls for a full stomach.

  • manuelbuencamino

    I think she’s putting all her marbles on an economic turnaround. She thinks all will be forgiven if she succeeds in the economy.
    She’s betting that people will trade their souls for a full stomach. Is it a smart bet?

  • http://awbholdings.com Arbet

    Hi, Mam Anna, aye that’s the question.

    Hi, Shaman, you are correct, we can never be sure.

    Hi, Sir Manuel, I think that’s in her cards. Why haven’t I thought of that? Thanks for that. Anyway, a variation of economy-as-trump-card has already started:

    GO, Left in cahoots to ruin economy — TU

  • http://wingsofmymind.blogspot.com/ eaglewild

    MOVING ON is not a unilateral endeavor. Gloria imposed herself on the pinoys and thus created problems one after the other. Problems must be resolved first. Gloria has slapped pinoys repeatedly by her mockery of law and order, promoting the generals who connived with her cheating, draining the the national treasury, etc.,etc. To say that she wants to move on like nothing happened is slapping pinoys one more time … like nothing happened. What gall! Pinoys are gentle and forgiving people, but not stupid, not even by a long shot.

  • http://awbholdings.com Arbet

    Well, Pinoys are fond of watching soap operas….

  • http://www.manila-bay-watch.blogspot.com Manila Bay Watch

    To me, the only way to get Gloria out of where she is now is to physically eject her within the next few months.

    Like Manuel, I believe she will use the economic upturn card but I don’t see how that will trickle down to the impoverished sector in a short period of time (people are getting politically restless.) Obviously, she can use the money during and in the aftermath of the natural calamity season that’s to come, i.e., storms, floodings, etc. and which might go down well for people in those areas PR wise.

    The best time to get the ball rolling for her ouster is now, while the iron is hot – while the surge of discontent is palpable because of the savagery of the election cheatings, the dishonesty, the violence.

  • http://awbholdings.com Arbet

    However, that won’t happen. Unless Abalos et al screw up big time, and get discovered immediately.

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