Is the Senate treading on dangerous grounds?
In a surprise move, Senate Minority Floor Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. filed Joint Resolution 10 (with 10 senators as co-sponsors) that calls for convening Congress into a Constituent Assembly to revise the Charter. The resolution specifically called for a federal form of government. Surprising because (1) the Senate has always been against the Charter change initiatives (in any form) of the Arroyo regime and (2) most senators are against Charter change.
Now there are fears that this is a Trojan horse, or an opening that this regime can exploit. Are these fears justified?
The danger lies in the fact that anything can happen in the Senate. For one, the head of the Committee on Constitutional Amendments is Richard Gordon, who is consistently pro-Gloria, though his political ambitions might actually stall any Charter change proposal from now till May 2010. Second, as I had pointed out here, anyone can always change his/her mind and vote the other way.
So for example, if there would be proposal to convene the Constituent Assembly, here is how the voting would go:
Yes
Edgardo Angara
Joker Arroyo
Pia Cayetano
Juan Ponce Enrile
Richard Gordon
Gregorio Honasan
Manuel Lapid
Ramon Revilla Jr.
Miriam Defensor Santiago
Juan Miguel Zubiri
No
Benigno Aquino III
Rodolfo Biazon
Alan Peter Cayetano
Francis Escudero
Jose Estrada
Panfilo Lacson
Loren Legarda
Ma. Consuelo Madrigal
Francis Pangilinan
Aquilino Pimentel Jr.
Manuel Roxas II
Manuel Villar
The possible NO senators who can switch to yes are:
* Legarda – Cmon, she can switch sides like it is her second nature.
* Roxas – He always plays safe, so voting Yes will not be a surprise.
* Villar – He knows how to switch sides at the right times.
* Allan Cayetano – We don’t know what’s on his mind, but I will not be surprised.
So if the votes needed is 50%+1, all the administration has to do is to get at least four NO votes to switch sides. It would be dicey if two-thirds vote is needed (I am not sure).
Some senators have signified that their support for the resolution was qualified – Pangilinan said he is for it after 2010. So there must be nothing to be afraid of.
Besides, I don’t think Gloria Arroyo needs Cha-cha to survive beyond 2010. It would be nice if she could be prime minister without term limits, but that would be impossible, given a lot of ambitious people on the wings. The best that she could ask for is for a friendly to win in 2010 (it can be done, right, Garci and Bedol?), a friendly who would guarantee that she won’t be prosecuted come July 2010. Also, Merceditas Gutierrez would still be Ombudsman by that time, and the Supreme Court would be packed by her appointees. The House of Representatives would remain friendly. So what is there for her to worry about?
The people? No. If the people wanted her out, they would have done so since 2005. Besides, it is easy to say to a pollster that they don’t support Gloria, right? Besides, who would replace her, as her supporters would say? (I dunno if they are ignorant to know that there is a vice president, or they are pretending that there is no vice president.) So no.
And, if all things fail, she can always go make herself a dictator.
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Federalism suits our regionalistic thinking, and at the same time suits those with lesser ambitions (aka warlords, political lords, and/or gambling lords). And, as former National Treasurer Leonor Briones pointed out, the financial aspect of such a setup is troublesome and will surely bog down any discussion on that matter. And, THERE WILL BE THREE LEVELS OF TAXES. Surely you want that, right?
Our Charter is imperfect, and needs changing. If it has to be revised, it should be done after the 2010 elections.